Microsoft will release a mini Windows 7
Windows 7 will use the same kernel as Vista, and so will be at least as much of a resource hog. But theres a good chance that Microsoft will release slimmed-down version of Windows 7 by June, 2010.
Theres nothing wrong with introducing a mainstream version of Windows 7 that needs lots of memory and processing power. Plenty of people, including me, appreciate Aero and similar features that require those kinds of resources.
But if Microsoft doesnt also release a slimmed-down version of Windows 7, its putting itself in jeopardy. The hottest-selling laptops, after all, are ultra lightweights such as the Asus Eee PC. Two of the three top sellers on Amazon and PriceGrabber.com are Asus PCs. Vista -- and Windows 7 -- wont run on that hardware. That leaves a big opening for Linux. True, Microsoft is extending XPs life to run on them, but forcing people to run XP if they want Windows on an ultra lightweight is no way to get people to upgrade to Windows 7.
Because of that, I think youll eventually see a slimmed-down version of Windows 7 released to run on ultra lightweights. Microsoft has said that it will allow Windows XP to be sold on ultra lightweights until June, 2010. That date is probably about six months after Windows 7 hits. My bet is thats also when youll see a slimmed-down version of Windows 7, built specifically for ultra lightweights. Whether it will also run on other hardware isnt clear, but theres a good chance youll see Windows 7 on an Asus Eee PC some day.